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I fully realize I’ve been neglecting football as of late. I
don’t really have a good excuse, other than I’ve been focused on finishing up
Hack, working on other fiction projects,
and working hard behind the scenes on a super-secret business project.
Other than that, I’m bored out of my mind!
Seriously, though, it’s about time for me to take a good
look at the draft. I think the days where I looked forward to the draft like a
second Christmas are in the distant past. I could probably do an entire post
about that alone, but long story short, once you’ve been out at Rams Park for a
draft and seen how the sausage is made, it kind of takes the mystery out of the
whole process, like seeing the unshaven, lecherous fifty-year-old in the Mickey
Mouse costume smoking a cig without his mouse head on.
Nonetheless, I’ve still been following all of the draft
programming pretty religiously; if it gets me to flip on ESPN these days, it must be kind of a big deal!
This year's annual selection meeting
has the added bonus of two first round picks for the home team, which I think
may come into play more than one might think.
Of course, I have no idea how this is going to unfold.
Neither do the countless other analysts who mock out drafts ahead of time.
Currently, there are more smokescreens around the league than at a ninja
convention.
Nonetheless, it helps me prepare for draft night (and a
possible live blog? Hmm…) to do one of these, so read on if you find it
interesting. If not, I’ll be back with more general tomfoolery shortly.
1. Kansas City
Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
I don’t like that the Chiefs are waffling on this pick. It
screams “We’re terrified to fuck up;” remember, the last people who played the
coy, “Oooooooh, I don’t know!” card
when they had the first overall pick were the Billy Devaney-led Rams, and we
all know how that one turned out…
It’s a decidedly non-Chiefs pick, which is why I think their
representative will either be possessed by a demon or will otherwise develop
some weird written form of Tourette’s on the way to the podium, scratch
Joeckel’s name out, and write down “Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia” before turning
it in.
2. Jacksonville
Jaguars: Dion Jordan, OLB Oregon
Did nobody else see this incredibly depressing picture from
NFL Network? I mean, fortunately
Christmas Ape over at KSK did a fine job
skewering the Jags, but it’s pretty ridiculous. Not that it’s terribly out of
character for the Jags; I imagine if K.C. did take Ogletree in the ridiculous
scenario above, one of the two guys in the war room would curl up into the
fetal position, while the other one would shit his pants. Ah, to work for a team
whose budget for the scouting department roughly equals that of the St. Francis
High School Bake sale. What am I saying? At least the bake sale had
tablecloths!
Jordan is fast, he’s a safe pick, and he’ll be an impact
player on a Jags team that sorely needs it. Shad Khan is smart enough to know
that he could sell a lot more tickets by trading for Tim Tebow than by drafting
Geno Smith, record be damned. That’s why Jordan has to be the pick.
3. Oakland Raiders:
Shariff Floyd, DT Florida
Uh…anyone want this pick? I mean anyone? The Raiders are
looking to trade down, and a late and baseless rumor mentioned late Tuesday
night that none other than the hometown (for now) Rams were calling on the
Raiders’ pick. Too early for Tavon? Not if you think that snake-like Chip Kelly
covets the dynamic young receiver.
I think the Raiders will have to stay put and take Floyd,
who has a reputation for being a mean cuss on the field. He’ll fit right in in
Oakland.
4. Philadelphia
Eagles: DT Star Lotuleilei, DT Utah
The more I hear that the Eagles are blowing sunshine up
Lotuleilei’s ass, the more I tend to not believe that they’re as enamored with
the hulking defensive lineman as some may have you believe. However, according
to “multiple sources,” they’re hot-and-heavy on him, so he’s probably the pick
at four in this scenario.
5. Detroit Lions: OT
Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Calvin Johnson is great, Matt Stafford is fine, and somehow
the Lions have managed to cobble together a serviceable running game out of 653
second round RB picks. They need help on defense, but they need more help at
tackle to allow Stafford to keep getting the ball to Johnson. Fisher is a
fantastic value at five and should man one of the tackle spots for Detroit for
years to come.
6. Cleveland Browns:
DE/LB Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
The way pundits talk about Zeke Ansah, you would think he
was Carlos Blanka from Street Fighter II, left in the Amazon to fend for himself
after a tragic plane crash. I mean, sure the guy is raw—he’s only played three
years of football period. But it's not like he's unaccustomed to the customs of man, or anything like that. At least I don't think that's the case...
By all accounts, Ansah's a physical monster who
had a ton of tackles for loss last season to go along with mediocre sack
numbers. As a GM, I actually like that stat—TFLs mean he’s blowing up run
blockers and getting into the backfield. Pass rush technique can, to a degree,
be taught. A fine pick for the new look Browns and their already cursed owner.
7. Arizona Cardinals:
T Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Geno Smith sure looks intriguing here, but I think the
Cardinals will foolishly fall under Carson Palmer’s siren song and forego the
developmental project at quarterback...for now. I mean, seriously, Carson Palmer hasn’t
been good for what? Three years now? And teams still want him? If you’re looking for El Dorado, the
Fountain of Youth, or starting up a pesticide business, sure. But as a QB? No
thanks.
To keep him upright, I think they’ll pounce on Lane Johnson if he's there.
Levi Brown is coming off a major injury, and their offensive line couldn’t stop
anyone last year. The other option here is a trade down.
8. St. Louis Rams
(from Buffalo): WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
As I mentioned on
the
Joe Roderick Show Tuesday during our "
Mocking the Draft" tomfoolery, this trade makes too much sense. The Bills move
back and still nab Ryan Nassib, and the Rams jump up to take the playmaker they
desperately crave. In his pre-draft presser on Monday, Jeff Fisher mentioned
something about “we could move up with one [first round pick] and down with the
other.” I think that’s exactly what they’re planning on doing. Reading between
the lines, they love Austin, and Fisher isn’t the type to repeat a mistake
after losing the coveted Justin Blackmon last year when he was jumped by
Jacksonville. This time, he’ll make sure the Rams are the ones doing the
jumping.
9. New York Jets: QB
Geno Smith, West Virginia
With Tim Tebow all but gone and Mark Sanchez a
shattered husk of a man, the Jets aren’t going to go into the season with David
Garrard as their starting QB. Rex Ryan’s a bit of a gambler; he may wait until
the second round to target E.J. Manuel. But I think if Geno’s on the board
here, they won’t risk someone jumping them to take him before their pick at 13
overall, where they could still likely get coveted OLB/DE hybrid Barkevious
Mingo. Though Smith might see action sooner than anyone would want him to
(since Sanchez and Garrard aren’t exactly “prime options” at QB), I do think
he’s probably the best of a sorry group at QB this year.
10. Tennessee Titans:
CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
If I had to guess, I’d say that the rumors about Milliner
not being able to play at the beginning of training camp came directly out of
Nashville. Even with their gaping hole on the interior line, I’ve heard that
Tennessee is the “hard stop” for Milliner, who is the top corner in this draft,
but who also has some questions to answer about his ballhawking abilities. Mike
Munchak apparently likes Milliner enough to try to answer those queries.
11. San Diego
Chargers: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Jarvis Jones is a monster. You get the feeling that he’s the
Voldemort of this draft: teams are afraid to even put his name out there in the
fear that some other team will manifest him on their draft card. He’d fit perfectly as a 3-4
rush linebacker in John Pagano’s defense.
12. Miami Dolphins: CB D.J. Hayden, Houston
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins traded this pick. I
also wouldn’t be shocked if GM Jeff Ireland did just about anything during the
draft, ranging from helping an Amish community raise a barn to putting on a
Christian Bale-worn costume from The Dark
Knight and running around Miami Beach, proclaiming to all onlookers, “I am
Batman!” Assuming they get a deal done with Kansas City for disgruntled T Brandon Albert, Ireland will seize on the late-rising Hayden like a bum on a bottle of gin.
13. New York Jets:
OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Can we please come
up with a different designation for these 3-4 pass rushers than “DE/OLB”? I
mean, we all know he’ll be that guy who sometimes puts his hand down in the
pros. I would suggest “PR” for “pass rusher,” but it also stands for “punt
returner.” Any other suggestions are welcome.
As far as the pick goes, the Jets have made no secret of
their love for Mingo. Aside from having one of the great names in the draft,
he’s a fine pick who should strike fear into every opposing quarterback not
named “Tom Brady.”
14. Carolina
Panthers: DT Sheldon Richardson, Mizzou
I figure the Panthers panic here: Steve Smith will retire in
a year or two, and they need another combustible personality to make headlines.
Seriously, though, Richardson has a well-documented mean
streak that would serve the soft Panthers defense well. He’s the type of guy
who’ll “inspire” some of his softer counterparts to loftier heights…by any means necessary…like a well-timed, "just bustin' your BALLS!" punch to the junk. Hey, Steve Smith needs a regulator on defense!
15. Dallas Cowboys
(from New Orleans): S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
Everybody knows that the Cowboys are hot for Vaccaro—red hot! Why not flirt a little bit,
Jerry Jones? Prime the pump, play hard-to-get. In his interview with the
Cowboys, Vaccaro was probably like, “You know, I’m the best safety in the draft
this year, right?” What Jerry Jones should’ve
said is, “Yeah, you’re great-I doubt anyone notices that wonky eye.” What he probably said was closer to, “Marry me
and treat me like a doormat.” Maybe he should get together with fictional Ben
Roethlisberger…
16. Buffalo Bills
(from St. Louis): QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
The Bills get the coach’s son quarterback they covet
in Nassib, because quite frankly every other team in the draft has a second or
third round grade on him. Actually, I suppose I shouldn’t paint with such a
broad brush; the Jags probably had him ranked in the top five, right between
“Purple” and a cock-eyed smiley face.
17. Atlanta Falcons
(from Pittsburgh): TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
A lot of mocks have Pittsburgh staying put and taking Eifert
themselves. I think
Jim
Thomas (who I have a ton of respect for) had a comment in the beat writer mock draft like, “Heath
Miller’s 30, so Eifert makes sense here.” What is this,
Logan’s Run? Since when is thirty considered “over the hill?”
To be
fair, Jim
did mention that Heath
Miller was coming off major knee surgery, too, and
maybe I’m a bit sensitive about my own pending thirtieth birthday
less than a month from now, but I’ll conveniently ignore facts as
necessary—I’ve learned that more than anything,
that’s the mark of a good draft analyst!
The Falcons, on the other hand, need someone to take over
for Tony Gonzalez, who has another year in him, tops. They love Eifert, and
would love to trade up for him.
18. New Orleans
Saints (from Dallas): CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
I think they’ll end up taking Rhodes one way or another (if
he lasts this long—he’s a guy, like Jones and Mingo, that it seems like teams
think will fall to them if they close their eyes really tight and never mention
him). The only other pick that makes sense is DT Sylvester Williams, who would
be fine, but I think given the shambles that their secondary became under Spags,
they’d be well-served to take Rhodes.
19. New York Giants: G
Chance Warmack, Alabama
The Giants are hurting for a corner, but they can pick up
one or two later in the draft. GM Jerry Reese loves taking value picks when
players drop, and for some reason in this mock, Warmack falls all the way to
19. I just hope that Warmack enjoys battling interdimensional aliens in
trenches somewhere in suburban New Jersey as much as he loves run blocking…(if
you don’t get that one, read through the Power Rankings archives a bit. Go on,
we’ll wait…).
20. Chicago Bears:
G/C Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
The Catfish is tempting here, as is D.J. Fluker, but they
signed Jermon BUSH-RODDDDD!!! (I like to imagine Mr. Spacely from The Jetsons screaming his name every
time I hear it), and they could use a little interior line help. Some teams
like Cooper’s athleticism and versatility more than Warmack. He’d be a huge get
for the Bears at 20.
21. Arizona Cardinals
(from Cincinnati): QB Matt Barkley, USC
There’s not a great fit here for the Bengals, so it could
make sense for them to trade down with a QB-needy team like the Cardinals,
unless they fall in love with a guy like LSU safety Eric Reed, Jerry
Jones-style. Sadly, despite earlier reports to the contrary, Carson Palmer has
not, in fact, found the Fountain of Youth in a bus station men’s room in Miami.
The Cardinals very much need a quarterback, and their earlier experience with
Matt Leinart isn’t enough to scare them away from Owen Wilson Barkley.
22. Cleveland Browns
(from St. Louis): QB E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Call me crazy, but I think the Vikings are just cagey enough to pull a deep
smokescreen like they did last season by touting CB Mo Claiborne for weeks and
weeks…right up until they picked T Matt Kalil. Everyone knows that Christian
Ponder isn’t the answer at QB for the Vikes, and Joe Webb was wildly
disappointing when pressed into service in last year’s playoff loss to the
Packers.
All this is a long-winded way of saying that in this
scenario, if a team wants to jump up to get the last okay-ish QB before a big
cliff, they’ll have to jump the Vikings. It’s a toss up between the Browns and
the Eagles, but the Browns are desperate enough to throw in an extra pick or
two, and get the intriguing Manuel at 22.
23. Minnesota
Vikings: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Even though the Vikes miss out on Manuel here, Hopkins is a
late-riser, and would be a fine fit opposite Greg Jennings in Minnesota. They
need weapons to compliment Adrian Peterson, and Hopkins fits the bill.
24. Indianapolis
Colts: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
The Colts need help on the defensive line, and Williams fits
the bill for them at 24. They can wait until the second round to address their
secondary and their need for a running back (Montee Ball, anyone?).
25. Minnesota
Vikings: ILB Manti Te’O, Notre Dame
Hey now! Let the boat parties begin again! Though something
tells me they’ll be a little different than the parties Daunte Culpepper and
Fred Smoot threw...
The Vikings need Te'O, he needs a low profile like he’d be
afforded in Minneapolis, it’s win-win. Let’s go catfishing, Ziggy!
26. Green Bay
Packers: WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee
A lot of folks have Cordarelle Patterson going somewhere in
the first round, which is odd because it seems like every analyst out there
dislikes Patterson. “He only had one good year!” “He’s got the bird legs!”
Count me in—not a fan of Patterson at all. The Packers are
smart, so I think they’ll go for the superior Tennessee wideout. Even if he’s a
project, they’ve shown they can develop wide receivers up in Green Bay. Add him
to the assembly line.
27. Houston Texans:
LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Everyone has the Texans taking a wideout, just like they’ve
had the Texans taking a wideout for the past several years. Last year, it was
supposed to be Kendall Wright.
They took OLB Whitney Mercilus.
I think they’ll
(smartly) think there isn’t value at wideout here, so they’ll take Ogletree,
who could slide inside in their 3-4 and give them one of the deepest
linebacking corps in the league.
28. Denver Broncos:
DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
After getting Wes Welker in the offseason, the Broncos
continue their Aryan ways by taking Bjoern Werner to make up for their
egregious clerical error that lost them pass rusher Elvis Dumervil. Werner is a
gen-u-ine German, so they’ll probably take him for the sole reason that he’ll
walk around the complex, constantly asking everyone ominously, “Papers,
please…” with his hand out. Any contributions on the field will be purely
ancillary.
29. New England
Patriots: CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
The Pats could use depth in their secondary, and even though
they’ve been giving a lot of love to Boise State CB Jamar Taylor, I think
Trufant is the better prospect. Bill Belichick likely gets off on all of the
deception and smokescreens this time of year, so I imagine he’ll gladly extend
a middle finger to everyone. That wasn’t even in reference to the pick—he just
flips people off for fun.
30. Pittsburgh
Steelers (from Atlanta): T D.J. Fluker, Alabama
Well whattayaknow? The Steelers drop thirteen spots and end
up with the guy they would’ve taken at seventeen anyway. Pittsburgh’s o-line is
in a constant state of flux, and is good for three or four devastating injuries
a year, so they can always use another lineman. That goes double for Fluker,
who can slide inside to guard if Mike Adams puts it together.
31. San Francisco
49ers: S Eric Reed, LSU
What do you get the team that already has it all? Hopefully
not a trade into the top seven to take Tavon Austin, which they are allegedly
seriously considering with their plethora of draft picks. If they stay put, a
safety like Reed could help replace Dashon Goldson.
32. Baltimore Ravens:
WR Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee
Blah. I guess he has to go here. The Ravens don’t fit well
here, so they might trade down. Barring that, I guess GM Ozzie Newsome will
take the consensus best value on the board, and take the enigmatic, bird-legged
receiver from Tennessee to complement Torrey Smith. They really should trade
down, though.
Whatever. Patterson will just become Joe Flacco's latest victim target.
(Not sure that's any better...)
So that’s it. Wow, 3,200 words. Do I really do more than this every week during the
season? Might need to cut back a bit this season.
/Cut to the 7,500 word 2013 Week One Power Rankings
What can I say—I’m addicted to writing. Could be worse…
Enjoy the draft, everyone. I’ll try to check in on twitter
from time-to-time, but that damned site spoils picks worse than Chris Berman. I
might also try to live-blog it, but
no promises—if it’s not up by an hour into the draft, it’s probably not
happening. You’ve been warned…
